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Alex's Blog
3/10/10 - The 2010 Cubs: Catcher and First Base
Hello friends! It’s been a couple of weeks but I’m back with a brand new blog! If you didn’t know, I’ve already talked about the Starters and the Relievers for the upcoming season, and now it’s time for me to move onto the position players. First up I’ll go with catcher and first base. I’ll start with 1B because that’s obviously the Cubs best position (last year anyway) and probably their most consistent player, in Derek Lee. D Lee is a fan favorite and he should be as he loves Chicago, wants to retire a Cub, and more than anything else, produces! Last year he hit .306 with 35 dingers, 111 RBI, and a .972 OPS (which is probably the best stat to judge players by). On top of all that he is one of the best defensive 1B in the league. He should be in the mix for gold glove every year.
Now, a lot of people will say that last season was a fluke with those power numbers, as he hit only 20 in ’08 and 22 in ’07. Here’s what I say though: he was hurt! We all remember the horrible collision at first with Rafael Furcal where he broke his wrist, was rushed back, and ended up back on the DL. This was one year after his career year of .335, 46, and 107. Wrist injuries take a long time to heal and especially when so much pressure gets put on the wrist when you’re batting. While he may have been physically healthy to play, his wrist could not have been 100%. He even said that his wrist was never right until last season. I expect around the same numbers for D Lee this year, especially with a healthy Ramirez behind him.
Now let’s move on the Geovany Soto (or Geo Baseball as we call him). Two years ago he was rookie of the year with a line of .285, 23, and 86. Then last season he was a fat slob (like Debbie Brubek) and it showed both offensively and defensively. He struggled to a .218 average last season and his power numbers also dropped down to 11 homers and 47 RBI. He was also extremely unlucky last year. There’s a stat out there that takes what a player is hitting and then factors what they probably should be hitting based on their amount of line drive outs, and it showed that Geo Baseball should have hit around .270 (for those of you who are not mathematicians, that’s a 52 point difference).
But let’s talk about this year. Geo has come into camp after losing 40 pounds in the offseason and that worried some people who thought perhaps his power stroke went with those pounds. But so far this spring, he’s crushing the ball (hard hit line drives, not homers). Even though he hit 23 homers, he wasn’t really a power hitter, he was a line drive hitter who hit home runs, and that’s a big difference. He’s still hitting screamers and this year he can’t be as unlucky as last year, so I’m expecting numbers closer to his rookie season.
For Lee, I’ve got him hitting .298 with 32 home runs and 115 RBI. For Geo Baseball, I’ve got him hitting .275 with 17 home runs and 64 RBI. I would like to go higher for Geo, but I think that his rookie year was kind of a fluke, but not really. As for Lee, he could easily get to those numbers and surpass them. But there are also questions for both of them. Was last season a fluke for D Lee? Will he end up closer to his ’08 numbers? Is Geovany Soto really that good, or is he closer to the player we saw last year? Since he lost all that weight, can he still drive the ball out of the ballpark? My answers would be positive, but you never know until it happens. What do you see out of these two?
2/26/10 - The 2010 Cubs: The Bullpen
Hello friendly people! It is time once again for me to break down the Cubs 2010 roster. This time around I’ll talk about one of the Cubs possible weak points: the bullpen. They are still out there looking for another righty that can pitch late in the games, but I’m writing this as if they won’t get anyone and will go with a young guy, and they have plenty of young guys they can choose from. I’ll get more into that a little later. First, I’ll start with the most important bullpen position in the closer. Last year at this time the Cubs weren’t sure who their closer would be, Carlos Marmol or Kevin Gregg. This year they went into spring training knowing that Carlos Marmol will be the closer for at least the majority of 2010. While Marmol had a good year last season, it wasn’t his best and he struggled especially with the walks. I think that the competition hurt him mentally because he had a great spring last season and still didn’t get the job (Kevin Gregg had a 0.00 ERA in spring if I recall correctly). But this year his confidence should be high as he is not only entering this year as closer, but he finished last year as closer so he knows what he needs to do. No one doubts that he has all the stuff to be one of the most dominant closers in the game, but questions arise when it comes to his control. As a closer, there’s one thing you absolutely cannot do: walk people. That’s what Marmol has had problems with. If he can stop walking people he’ll be fine, though.
The Cubs have two set-up men, one lefty and one righty, in John Grabow and Angel Guzman. The Cubs got Grabow, a lefty, in a trade last season with the Pirates and he did a good job for them, getting a new deal over the offseason. Guzman has been in the Cubs system his entire career and has been talked about for years as having a great arm, but he’s had health problems. Last season was a great one for him and there has been some talk of him being closer if Marmol can’t handle the job. These two guys should be solid for the team and definitely a strength in that bullpen.
The rest of the ‘pen is rounded out with Sean Marshall, Carlos Silva, Tom Gorzelanny/Jeff Samardzija, and another arm to be named later. Sean Marshall was phenomenal out of the bullpen last season and is a young veteran on the team. He’s never complained about being a starter then a reliever then a starter then a reliever or playing left field for an out last season or anything else he’s been asked to do. The man just has a great attitude and has been good for the Cubs for the past few years. Carlos Silva has had good success as a reliever when he was with the Phils and Lou has recently come out and said Silva will not be considered a starter until he loses some weight and gets in shape. Tom Gorzelanny and Jef Samardzija are (by my count) the two guys battling for the fifth spot in the rotation, and the loser may end up in the ‘pen. Tom Gorzelanny definitely would end up in there, but Samardzija may end up in the minors as the Cubs feel he’d be better as a starter than a reliever, even though he had great numbers as a reliever two years ago in the Cubs run to the playoffs. The last spot in the bullpen is trying to be filled by trade at the moment, but the Cubs have a lot of young arms that could come up and contribute, including some that did contribute last season. These are guys like Justin Berg, Esmailin Caridad, Jeff Gray, David Patton, Jeff Stevens, and this years’ rule-5 pick Mike Parisi. Berg, Caridad, and Stevens were good for the Cubs towards the end of last season. Jeff Gray has experience with the As before being traded to the Cubs. Patton spent the entire season with the team last year, although a lot of it spent on the DL in the second half. Parisi has major league experience with the Cardinals. I think Gray will be the guy up to start the season, which would mean Parisi heads back to the Cards (no big deal there), and the others would be in the minors. This would be to start the season but because of injuries and poor performance they will all probably see the majors, with the exception of Patton, who will probably start in AA.
So my bullpen is Marmol, Guzman, Grabow, Marshall, Silva, Gorzelanny (I have “Great White” as the fifth starter), and Gray. As with the rotation, there are questions surrounding this though. Can Marmol cut down on the walks and handle the pressure of closing? Can Guzman stay healthy? Can Grabow cut down on the walks in order to stay effective? Can Silva actually contribute to the team? Will anyone step up and take hold of that last spot in the ‘pen? Of course I think the best will happen, but do you?
2/22/10 - The 2010 Cubs: Starting Pitching
Hello all! This is my first blog dissecting the 2010 Cubs team position by position. I’ll start it out by talking about the most important part of a team: Starting Pitching. The Cubs have what could be a very solid starting staff, but it also could be a low point for the team depending on how a few things shake out. Starting pitching is one of the few spots on the team where there is actually a competition for a spot, along with a bullpen arm and 2B. We all know they’ve got Z, Lilly, Demp, and Wells, but the number 5 spot is up for grabs between four guys: Tom Gorzelanny, Carlos Silva, Jeff Samardzija, and Sean Marshall. I’ll count out Marshall right now because he’s so good out of the bullpen. So that leaves the other three going for one spot. Gorzelanny is a relatively young guy, at 27 years old, who has some upside. In 2007, his first full year in the majors, he made 32 starts with 200 IP and an ERA of 3.88, but since then he’s struggled with ERAs of 6.67 and 5.55 over the past two years. If he can regain what he had in ’07, he could be a solid contributor for the Cubs from the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Plus he’s a lefty, and we all know Lou loves lefties. Silva, who’s coming off two disappointing years in Seattle after signing a big money contract, is the new guy on the team. He’s been absolutely horrible over the last two years and has been hurt. With an ERA of 8.60 last season in only 30.1 IP and 6.46 in ’08 in 153 IP, he’s looking to regain what he had for the Twins. There the had ERAs of 3.44, 4.19, 4.21, and 4.43 over six years in Minn. Sometimes all a player needs is a change of scenery (see: Milton Bradley) and the Cubs are hoping that’s what Silva needs to turn his career around. The third and most interesting option is Samardzija (or Great White). The 25 year old out of Notre Dame turned down the NFL to come to the majors and pitch. He had in 2008, playing a big role in the Cubs late season surge posting an ERA of 2.28 in 27.2 IP with 25 strikeouts. That was out of the bullpen. In ’09, he jumped from AAA to the majors and then back to AAA and back to the majors. He never had a chance to get settled and it showed, as he posted a 7.53 ERA over 34.2 IP and 2 games started. Everyone has said he has a dynamite fastball but his off-speed stuff has needed work. He spent 4 weeks in Mexico winterball, and scouts said he dramatically improved his slider and changeup. He could end up winning the spot by a long shot, and might be the front runner going in. He’s my pick for both who I think it will be and who I want it to be.
Now for the guys we know about. I’ll start with the “Ace” of the team, Carlos Zambrano. I put it in quotations because even though he’s got all the stuff in the world and should be an Ace, he has yet to put it all together. He won only 9 games last year and struggled through injuries that were brought about because of his poor conditioning during the season. It appears that he’s grown up (finally), after staying in Chicago all offseason to condition, showed up to camp two weeks early, and is in the best shape of his career and possibly life. He was embarrassed by his performance last season, which he should be, and I’m looking for him to rebound in a big way this year. Dempster was distracted last year (which he didn’t use as an excuse and neither will I, but it’s worth mentioning) after his daughter was born with a serious birth defect. In ’08 he was arguably the Cubs most consistent pitcher and should come in this year with a clear head. He wasn’t bad last year, and while he won’t have the sub-3.00 ERA he had in ’08, should be better than he was last year.
Theodore Roosevelt Lilly has been the Cubs best pitcher during his three years here, winning 44 games (more than any other starter during that time). His health is a question this spring, as he’s recovering from shoulder surgery and is not expected back before mid-April at the earliest. He’s said that he wants to be ready by opening day and Hendry said he’s recovering faster than expected. They won’t rush him, though, and will wait until he’s 100% until they start him. Randy Wells rounds out the rotation. He was probably the biggest surprise last year as no one expected him to make the team, and he didn’t out of spring training. When he came up he had an immediate impact though, and performed well until a late slump in September. He should grow and improve from last year. So here’s my starting 5: Z, Lilly, Demp, Wells, Great White.
It’s not all sunshine, though. There are fair questions to be asked about this group. Will Zambrano keep up his good conditioning all season long, or will he turn into the Z of last year and win under 10 games? Can Dempster return to form or will he have another year like last year and end up going 11-11? Can Wells take that next step forward or will be crumble under expectations and win under 10? Can Lilly return by May and come back effective, or will he have a setback and end up on the DL into June then come back ineffective? Can one of those three guys take a hold of the No. 5 spot? I’m an optimist, so I’m hoping for the best, and expecting the best. I expect this rotation to carry the team into the playoffs. What do you think?
2/17/10 - What 2 Watch 4 This Spring
With pitchers and catchers reporting today, I’ve been thinking. First off, I think that I’ve never been as happy to see baseball back than I am at the moment, what with the Bears being the joke they are. Second off, there are a lot of things that will be fun to watch this spring. This is a list of players and positions to watch over the next month and a half.
First is the new guy (no, not Chad Tracy, Marlon Byrd). There are some questions that we need answered before we can fully believe in him. Can he come close to repeating what he did last year when he hit 20 homers and had 89 RBI? Or can he hit the .295 he’s averaged the last three years now that he’s out of that phone booth he played in down in Texas? Or how about something simple: can he be the role player the Cubs need him to be? Because that’s what they need him to be, not a star. So keep an eye on him, which I’m sure you were already doing. And please do me a favor: if he starts slow don’t give up hope. I know it’s hard to keep believing when we just had to put up with Milton Bradley, but if you can remember, Bradley had a great spring last year and we all know how that turned out.
Next, keep your eyes on the young guys. Every spring there are one or two youngsters that no one knew about to either make the team or just open up some eyes. We all know about Starlin Castro, so I won’t go into him (but still watch him with excitement). I’m pretty sure you all know about Andrew Cashner (and even though he most likely won’t see the big leagues this year, it’ll be fun watching him face big leaguers for the first time), so I won’t go into him. I also won’t go into guys like “The Shark” (see the glossary to find out who that is), Tyler Colvin, Andres Blanco, or Sam Fuld. The most likely young guy to come out of nowhere will be a guy for the bullpen or in a long shot, the rotation. To fill the open spot, there are many guys for you to watch.
First, keep your eye on Jeff Gray who the Cubs got in the trade of Jake Fox. He’s a hard thrower who doesn’t walk many (only 5 BB in 31 IP in his career) and he is probably the leading candidate to fill the open spot in the bullpen. Another guy to keep an eye on is Mike Parisi, who the Cubs selected from the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft, so he has to stay on the big league roster all year long if the Cubs want to keep him. He didn’t pitch in the majors last year and probably won’t make the team so screw him. John Gaub and Jeff Stevens are two of the three guys the Cubs got from the Indians for Mark DeRosa last offseason. Stevens spent time in the majors last year and while he didn’t have great numbers, his stuff looked great. As for Gaub, check out the “Down on the Farm” section to find out what he did last year (I know, I’m just making you go everywhere on the site in this blog. Well deal with it!). Esmailin Caridad and Justin Berg were two guys who were up for the Cubs last year and impressed with ERAs of 1.40 and 0.75 respectfully. If it’s not Gray, it’ll be one of these guys. Or it could be Gray and one of these guys. These are just some of the youngsters to watch this spring so don’t be surprised if another one comes out and shows that they’re ready to take the next step because as I said before, every year there are one or two that no one saw coming (yes, that even includes me).
As for positions to watch this spring, keep your eye on SS, 2B, C, and the OF. I won’t go deep in depth with these because I’m going to be writing blogs focusing on every position throughout the course of spring training. But with SS, will it be Starlin Castro or Ryan Theriot? With 2B, can Mike Fontenot actually step up and hit like he showed he could in limited action two years ago? With catcher, even though Geo Baseball has lost all the weight, can he hit like he did his rookie season? In the OF, is Soriano healthy? Is Marlon Byrd what we need in CF? Will Fuk take another step forward like he did last year? Is Xavier Nady healthy enough to start the season (AKA can he hit and throw?)? So don’t treat this spring like any other… pay attention and keep what I’ve brought to your attention in mind. Watch Byrd, the youngsters, and the position battles and questions and you’ll go into the season a smarter, more informed, and all around better fan than you have ever been! Now what about you? What storylines are you watching this spring?
1/31/10 - Give Peas a Chance (And by Peas, I Mean Mike Martz)
Yeah, I know. Ignore what I’ve said that past month or so, including earlier today. I was in a bad place. And I was angry. Ok, never mind… I still think Martz will end up being bad. But even with that, the Bears are going to hire him to be their OC and then everyone will be fired after next year (at least if there’s a God, everyone will be fired after next year). After all, the Bears will need to win at least 11 games, by my count, to even have a chance of being in the playoffs. I figure Favre will be back in late August, you know, so he won’t have to work too hard during that training camp stuff. So the Vikings will probably win the division again with 12-13 wins. The Packers were not a one year wonder, as they have a top five quarterback in Aaron Rogers, as well as a young offensive core around him and the youngest defense in the league (which was also number two in the league in total defense behind the Jets). So I expect them to win 11 games. That means if the Bears win under 11 games, they’re in third place in the NFC North and probably out of the playoffs. They only won 7 games this year, don’t have a pick in the first two rounds AKA the FIRST FREAKING DAY of the draft in April, and all their crappy old offensive linemen and defensive players will be another year older and crappier. So I don’t see the Bears winning more than the seven games they won this year.
But back to Martz, or on to Martz, as I haven’t even started talking about him yet. Listen to me, the man may be kind of a joke and a dick, and he may have been fired from the last three jobs he’s had, but he’s a brilliant offensive mind. Everyone knows about what he did with Kurt Warner and “The Greatest Show on Turf.” But most people forget that he did wonders with Marc Bulger, who is now a bum. Then he was fired, but not because of his offense, and the Rams have gone through four coaches since he was fired in 2005 and have a record of 18-51. So Martz went to Detroit, where the Lions were horrible on offense and defense when he got there, and when he was fired, they had a horrible defense, but a good offense. And they had a good offense with Jon freaking Kitna as quarterback, Megatron wasn’t there yet, they had no running game, and they had few offensive weapons. After two seasons with a 3-13 record, and a 7-9 record, Martz was fired. Kitna fell off the map, and the Lions finished 0-16 the next season, with a horrible offense, and absolutely no defense. In Detroit, Kitna wasn’t good, but he wasn’t Kitna-bad under Martz, and Martz was fired for the team losing, but most of that being the defenses fault. On the San Francisco he went. 2008 was the only year Martz would spend with the Niners, as he was fired after Mike Singletary was named head coach the next offseason. But while there, QB Alex Smith was injured for the year, and Martz had to use J.T. O’Sullivan and Sean Hill all year long. O’Sullivan sucked, but Sean Hill was ranked number 12 in quarterback rating under Martz. That’s not great, but that’s also not Sean Hill-bad. And remember, no Crabtree and Vernon Davis was not the Vernon Davis of this year. Sure, Frank Gore was there, but in Martz’s pass first offense, Gore didn’t have to do much other than be Frank Gore.
Now on to Martz with the Bears, as he is expected to be hired within the week. First, let’s look at the best case scenario: The Bears have an explosive offense that is actually fun to watch. Just think about it. Jay Cutler is top five quarterback talent. Fatt Forte had a great rookie season, and dropped off last year, with his knee injury being a big part of that. It wasn’t until late in the season that Devin Aromashadu was even put in a game, even though Cutler wanted him all season long. So next year, the Bears have Cutler still, a healthy Forte, Aromashadu for a whole year, Knox with a year under his belt, and Mike Martz, an offensive genius, at the helm. Now for the worst case scenario (and more likely one): The Bears offense falls apart and it’s funny as hell to watch. Just think about this one. With Martz’s offense, every drop is a 5 or 7 step drop for the quarterback, and with this shitty Bears O-Line, Cutler will get killed by the step 4. Now let’s say the line holds up long enough for Cutler to be able to throw the ball, imagine Devin Hester trying to learn all 395830 plays of Martz’s playbook, or trying to stay on a route long enough for Cutler to be able to hit him after a 7 step drop. Just think about it! It could be amazing! Now imagine Greg Olsen having to block, as the tight ends do not play a large roll in Martz’s offense. Olsen couldn’t block me, let alone an NFL defensive end! I’m cracking up just thinking of the possibilities. So, give Martz a chance to come in and prove that he’s the genius people say he is. And if he’s actually not that good, it will be hilarious to watch!